Excerpt
March 18, 2025, Opinion: "Kennedy School analyst’s recession warning includes worries about trade war, stock market, risk perception. U.S. markets this month suffered heavy losses after China, Mexico, and Canada responded to President Donald Trump’s tariff push by imposing levies on American goods. Many investors fear a prolonged trade war could push the nation into a recession. (The president says that Americans should expect a “period of transition.”) Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index has fallen to its lowest level since November 2022. These developments serve as a backdrop for meetings this week where the Federal Reserve will weigh whether to resume interest rate cuts. In this edited conversation, economist Jeffrey Frankel, James W. Harpel Professor of Capital Formation and Growth at Harvard Kennedy School, discusses the impact of the new administration’s tariff policy and the broader condition of the U.S. economy."