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It was a fast-paced first few weeks for President Trump featuring cabinet confirmations, controversial executive orders, and high political theater. A recent John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum at the Institute of Politics (IOP) offered an opportunity for ����vlog���� professors and IOP fellows to analyze what we have seen and forecast what we might expect in the next four years.

The panel represented a breadth of perspectives: Graham Allison, the Douglas Dillon Professor of Government and former assistant Secretary of Defense; Dan Balz, chief correspondent of The Washington Post and IOP senior fellow; Cornell William Brooks, professor of the practice of public leadership and social justice and former President of the NAACP; Jason Furman, the Aetna Professor of the Practice of Economic Policy and former chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers; and Meghan O’Sullivan, director of the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice of International Affairs.

IOP spring 2025 resident fellow Brittany Shepherd, a national political reporter for ABC News, moderated the panel.

Shepherd began by saying there seems to be an optimism about Trump, both from his base and perhaps from the “Trump curious.”

“So, I’m curious how that all percolates in Washington, as the Republicans hold all of the power and the Supreme Court as well,” she said to the panelists. “As it pertains to your various fields, are you optimistic?” 

The responses were mixed.  

Acknowledging the chaos and confusion that the executive orders related to tariffs created, Furman said what will matter for the economy is productivity, growth, and innovation.  

“For economic growth over the next couple of years, it might be that DeepSeek R1 was the most important thing to happened on January 20th, not the person who was sworn into office that day,” he said, referring to the latest version of the Chinese artificial intelligence model, which rivals leading U.S. AI products while costing less to build. The announcement of DeepSeek caused an immediate decline in tech stocks.

As for the cost of groceries or an affordable housing market, Furman was decidedly more pessimistic: “The only way he [Trump] could actually bring down the price of groceries would be a massive recession.”

Balz also pointed out the chaos of the first month. “The turmoil that he is unleashing at this point is something we’ve never seen before, and we’ll have to watch it play out,” he said.

“Whatever people think about him, you have to acknowledge he made a remarkable comeback,” Balz continued. “If we were sitting here four years ago, the idea that he would be the president of the United States today, I think nobody would have taken that bet. I think that that has affected perceptions of what people at least are prepared for.”

Allison added a note of optimism in regard to one of the country’s most important international relationships. “I recently made a bet publicly,” he said. “This time next year, we will have been surprised on the upside in relations between U.S. and China.”

But O’Sullivan said optimism in foreign policy depends on where you are. “If you’re sitting in Europe, it’s much harder to be optimistic,” she said. Worrying factors include “a combination of what’s happening in the European economies and what’s happening in Ukraine, on top of an American presidency that is not particularly overtly invested in the transatlantic relationship.”

The Middle East, however, holds possibilities, she said. While it might seem “perplexing” that a president so intent on pulling out of the Middle East and disengaging abroad would suggest the United States take over Gaza, to O’Sullivan, the bold statement may have more merit than first appearances suggest.  

“We are already seeing patterns that are recognizable in President Trump’s strategy and behavior from the first administration, which is to change a conversation with a seemingly outrageous statement,” she said.  

Brooks brought the conversation back from the realm of possibilities to the reality of now.

While acknowledging Black History Month, which is recognized every February, he wanted to be clear about the ramifications of the anti-DEI executive orders.

“When we think about DEI in the present moment with respect to the president, I think it’s important for us to appreciate that we’re not talking about ceremonial extravagances,” he said. “This is not merely about abolishing Holocaust Remembrance Day, not merely about abolishing Hispanic Heritage Month or Black History Month or Women’s History Month. This is about literally the racial weaponization of the federal workforce.”

Creating a government that does not resemble the country it governs has consequences, Brooks said.  

“When we appoint someone as the head of the civil rights division with no experience in civil rights, we do a disservice to our nation.” he argued. “This is a complex body of law where you need competent people who’ve tried cases, who’ve done investigations, who know what to do and who can elicit the trust of people.”  

“You can’t do an investigation unless people trust you,” Brooks said. “You must have people who can go out into communities and get people to trust them. You need a diverse workforce.”

Brooks, however, had hope. “I’m optimistic because people retain the ability to be optimistic,” he said. “This will be the reservoir of resilience and agency that they will need.” But rather than focusing on optimism, Brooks chose to better define it.

“Optimism is predicated on moral candor.”

This discussion, , is available online.  Future Forum discussions can be found at the . 

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Banner image: (left to right) Moderator and IOP spring 2025 resident fellow Brittany Shepherd; Professor Graham Allison; Dan Balz, IOP Senior Fellow; Professor Cornell William Brooks; Professor Meghan O'Sullivan; and ProfessorJason Furman. Photos by Martha Stewart.