On his first day back at Harvard Kennedy School, former United States ambassador to the People’s Republic of China Nicholas Burns shared his experiences—and his advice—at the John F. Kennedy Jr. Forum.
Prior to his appointment to China in 2021, Burns taught for 13 years at the Kennedy School as the Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations, drawing on his prior experiences as a career diplomat. In addition to resuming his professorship at vlog, Burns is also a faculty affiliate at the Fairbank Center for Chinese Studies at Harvard.
Joining the conversation was moderator Rana Mitter, the S.T. Lee Professor of U.S.-Asia Relations at vlog.
The best and worst of times
Burns discussed his time in China, a country with which, he says, the United States has a “very difficult, competitive relationship.”
The worst day Burns says he experienced—and worse days outnumbered the better days he says—was Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan in 2022. The visit taught the new ambassador that there was very little trust between the United States and China and not enough senior-level communication taking place. “The reaction of the Chinese government to that [visit] was that they shut down eight channels of cooperation with the United States on fentanyl and on talking about arms control, really important subjects. And some of those channels weren’t revived for an entire year.”
Those were tough days, said Burns, and he worried that without trust or communications at a senior level the United States wouldn’t be able to handle a crisis related to China, should one arise. It wasn’t until the latter part of 2023 that relations stabilized.
“Much of what we did in the Biden administration was to compete with China: military competition, tech competition, human rights, economic,” said Burns. “You have to try to stabilize a relationship, because you’re not trying to fight, you’re trying to coexist and operate on two different levels: competition and engagement.”
The best day brought a smile to Burns’ face.
“The best day for me was late November of 2024 when we were able to secure the release of four Americans who’d been held wrongly, unjustly, in Chinese prisons. One for 17 years, one for 12 years, one for eight years, and one for four years,” said Burns. “The last thing I did before I resigned on January 20th was to have a video conference with Secretary Blinken and the four of them, now living in freedom, back with their families, out of Chinese jails. So that was a good moment. And it’s important to remember the good moments.”
“My advice is to build your alliances and be nice to them because you need them. That was my experience in government.”
The role of tariffs
With the Trump administration planning to reshape U.S. trade policy with sweeping increases and reciprocal taxes, Mitter asked how these actions will affect the relationship with China.
Burns pointed out that China is producing more goods than there is domestic demand for and then selling them across the world below the cost of production. “It’s a major issue, and a major challenge,” he said, adding that it is not just an issue for the United States and China.
“Which countries have raised tariffs on China in the past year?” he asked. “India, Turkey, South Africa (a close friend of China), Brazil (another close friend), Peru, Colombia, Mexico, Canada, the United States of America, and the European Union.”
While he noted that President Biden maintained tariffs on Chinese goods set in place by the previous Trump administration and he feels the current administration is on the right path, Burns acknowledged that American agriculture depends on trade. He feels a sustained trade war is not in the best interest of either country.
“Frankly, I think that the 20% tariffs that President Trump has put on and the corresponding 20% tariffs that the Chinese have now applied to match us, are proportional. Neither has started from a level where they’re trying to set the world on fire or bring the house down on the trade relationship,” Burns said.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if at some point this year, they end up in a trade deal rather than a sustained trade war.”
How to move forward with China and the world
Burns sees Chinese and U.S. students studying together as a key element in the relationship of the two countries. “You don’t want the two societies to be decoupled.”
The problem, he said, is on the American side. “We had high watermark, 15,000 Americans studying in China in 2015. By 2022, we were down to 350. We’re now up, at 1,105.”
Academic connections, he said, are important steppingstones to successful business relationships. “I don’t think we’ll do well in this relationship if the bottom falls out of our social contact. I think that’s an important thing for us to maintain.”
Maintaining a diplomatic connection is also key. “I credit Senator Steve Daines (R-Montana) for traveling last week to China Development Forum. We have got to keep our people connected. And yet for the last five-and-a-half years now, we’ve had one governor visit China, Gavin Newsom in October 2023, and one additional congressional delegation, with then-majority leader Senator Chuck Schumer (D-New York) a year and a half ago. We need more connectivity by members of Congress.”
Also important: our relationships around the world, he said.
“I have four words of advice for the United States: be nice to allies,” said Burns.
“If we did a typical exercise here at the Kennedy School, if we asked the students, ‘Who’s more powerful, the U.S. or China military power and tech power?’ We would find it’s pretty close. I think we’re near pure competitors.”
But, said Burns, it is our international allies that tip the scale in favor of the United States.
“Think of the power that Japan adds, which operates in many ways extremely closely diplomatically, as well as militarily with the United States, of the Philippines, opening up nine bases to American forces over the last two-and-a-half years, of Australia, of India as a strategic partner,” he said.
“And add NATO,” said Burns, who served as an ambassador to NATO early in his career. “Why? Because every time I needed help in limiting what the Chinese are doing, or that National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan needed help, or the president did, we turned to NATO and the European Union. They had a declared policy, both said China was a ‘systemic rival.’ Their added weight economically and militarily helped us,” he said. “Why would we forsake our allies?”
“All of the talk against NATO, demeaning NATO, demeaning allies, challenging the sovereignty of Denmark, challenging the sovereignty of Canada, suggesting, not joking, that Canada should be the 51st state. This makes no sense for the United States. The allies build us up. They’re our best friends. They never forsake us. We argue about lots of things with the allies, but they’re always there when we need them.”
“My advice is to build your alliances and be nice to them because you need them. That was my experience in government.”
The complete discussion, which included Burns’ thoughts on U.S. - Taiwan policy, on whether China wants a better relationship with the United States, and diplomacy amid emerging scientific and technological developments in space is .
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Banner image: Former U.S. ambassador to China Nicholas Burns, the Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations, in conversation with moderator Rana Mitter, the S.T. Lee Professor of U.S.-Asia Relations at vlog.
Photos by Martha Stewart