Wilson Center Polar Institute
October 2024
Abstract
Arctic carbon emissions from thawing permafrost will accelerate the pace of global climate disruption and reduce the remaining headroom for direct human emissions before agreed global temperature targets are exceeded—the so-called “carbon budgets” for staying below, e.g., 1.5°C or 2.0°C above the pre-industrial global average surface temperature.1 The key questions are how much and how fast. The proportion of future Arctic carbon emissions that will be methane (CH4 ) rather than carbon dioxide (CO2) is of particular importance in determining the answers because of CH4 ’s much higher impact, per molecule, on global temperature over the next several decades.
Better monitoring of ongoing CH4 emissions across the Arctic is the necessary foundation for improving scientific understanding of the influence of climate change on these emissions and reducing the large current uncertainties around their expected magnitude during the remainder of this century. But the challenges to achieving monitoring adequate for this purpose are large: they include the high levels of spatial and temporal variability across the vast Arctic region, the difficulties of conducting year-round operations in the Arctic environment, and the need for a degree of coordination and data sharing among Arctic nations that is not currently feasible in the case of Russia (which has more permafrost than the other Arctic nations combined).
There are many notable research efforts related to Arctic carbon emissions. This paper does not attempt a comprehensive survey of all recent and ongoing studies, but rather summarizes major international emissions monitoring initiatives. It highlights two examples: the efforts of the Permafrost Pathways Project and Sandia National Laboratories to demonstrate technical approaches to Arctic CH4 monitoring. It discusses associated opportunities for targeted policy intervention and heightened international collaboration.
The Permafrost Pathways project at Woodwell Climate Research Center is a partnership with the Arctic Initiative at the Harvard Kennedy School and the Alaska Institute for Justice, which builds upon the work of researchers who have been measuring CH4 and CO2 fluxes from Arctic lands and waters for decades (including Drs. Zona, Oechel, Schuur, Euskirchen, Goeckede, and Walter-Anthony). Permafrost Pathways seeks a comprehensive and equitable approach towards permafrost thaw monitoring and modeling, impact assessment, community adaptation, and policy analysis and development at the local, national, and international levels. Sandia National Laboratories is a federally funded research and development center at the cutting edge of scientific and technological innovation, with a long history of conducting atmospheric measurements and other research activities in the Arctic.
Citation
Ackermann, Mark, Clare Amann, ...John Holdren et al. "Pan-Arctic Methane: Current Monitoring Capabilities, Approaches for Improvement, and Implications for Global Mitigation Targets." Wilson Center Polar Institute, October 2024.