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Ambassador Wendy Sherman, now back at 糖心vlog官网, says that although President Trump鈥檚 foreign and economic policies may seem to be all over the map, she fears he鈥檚 setting the United States on a fundamentally different path.

In less than three months, President Donald Trump has radically reconfigured America鈥檚 relationships with both traditional allies and adversaries. So how do you make sense of foreign and economic policy during the first three months of his new administration? 

Now back at the Kennedy School, Ambassador Wendy Sherman is working to assess the motivations behind presidential actions that have changed the course of geopolitics and economics in ways she says could have profound repercussions on everything from global economic stability to the future of democracy to nuclear proliferation. A diplomat鈥檚 diplomat and winner of the presidential National Security Medal, Sherman is no stranger to decoding the moves and motivations of enigmatic world leaders and autocrats. During the Clinton administration, she was a counselor to the State Department and coordinated policy for the United States鈥 negotiations with North Korea and President Kim Jong Il about its nuclear missile program. During the Obama years, she was appointed as undersecretary of state for political affairs by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and was the lead negotiator for the Iran nuclear deal between the regime in Tehran and the five U.N. Security Council permanent members鈥攖he United States, China, Russia, France, and the UK鈥攁s well as Germany. Under President Biden, she became the first woman to serve as deputy secretary of state and was the department鈥檚 point person on relations with President Xi Jinping and China. Now she鈥檚 a senior fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and a Hauser Leadership Fellow at the Center for Public Leadership, of which she is also a former director. She joins PolicyCast host Ralph Ranalli to discuss the places鈥攕ome of them potentially dangerous鈥擳rump seems to be taking the U.S. and the world.  
 

Policy Recommendations

Wendy Sherman鈥檚 recommendations for non-U.S. world leaders
  • Prioritize the interests of your own country and citizens by focusing on ensuring global peace, security, and prosperity.
  • Maintain open lines of communication with the United States regardless of short-term changes in friendly or adversarial relations.
  • Respond to ongoing events while maintaining perspective about the changeability of U.S. and international politics. 

 

Episode Notes

Ambassador Wendy Sherman, the 21st U.S. deputy secretary of state and the first woman in that position, has been a diplomat, businesswoman, professor, political strategist, author, and social worker. She served under three presidents and five secretaries of state, becoming known as a diplomat for hard conversations in hard places. As deputy secretary, she was Biden administration鈥檚 point person on China. While serving as undersecretary for political affairs, Sherman led the U.S. negotiating team that reached an agreement on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action between the P5+1, the European Union and Iran. And, as counselor at the State Department, she led on North Korea and was engaged on Middle East negotiations. For her diplomatic accomplishments she was awarded the National Security Medal by President Barack Obama. At Harvard Kennedy School, she was a professor of the practice of public leadership, director of the Center for Public Leadership at Harvard Kennedy School (where she is now a Hauser Leadership Fellow), and a current and former senior fellow at the School鈥檚 Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. In 2002, along with former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, Sherman built a global consulting business, The Albright Group. Sherman previously served on the President鈥檚 Intelligence Advisory Board, chaired Oxfam America鈥檚 board of directors, served on the U.S. Department of Defense鈥檚 Defense Policy Board, and was director of child welfare for the State of Maryland. She is the author of the book: 鈥淣ot for the Faint of Heart: Lessons in Courage, Power and Persistence.鈥 Sherman attended Smith College and received a B.A. cum laude from Boston University and a master鈥檚 degree in social work from the University of Maryland.  

Ralph Ranalli of the 糖心vlog官网 Office of Communications and Public Affairs is the host, producer, and editor of 糖心vlog官网 PolicyCast. A former journalist, public television producer, and entrepreneur, he holds an BA in political science from UCLA and a master鈥檚 in journalism from Columbia University.

Scheduling and logistical support for PolicyCast is provided by Lilian Wainaina. Design and graphics support is provided by Laura King. Web design and social media promotion support is provided by Catherine Santrock and Natalie Montaner. Editorial support is provided by Nora Delaney and Robert O鈥橬eill.  

Preroll: PolicyCast explores research-based policy solutions to the tough problems we鈥檙e facing in our society and our world. This podcast is a production of the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University.

Intro (Wendy Sherman): I was talking with mid-career students from all over the world last evening. And, you know, I said I know everybody鈥檚 shaken. I鈥檓 shaken by the dramatic change here. But you all live in countries where there鈥檚 also been dramatic change. Where your leaders have changed. You鈥檝e either moved forward or you鈥檝e moved backward. I think people find this more dislocating because the United States has been such a huge power in the world, and so consequential and has been that shining city on a hill that Ronald Reagan spoke of. And now they wonder who we are now and what it will mean for them. So do what you need to do to take care of your citizens. Keep the lines of communication open. I believe in American resilience. I believe we will get back to the values that are who we are fundamentally. It may take time, it will take a lot of hard work. It will not be easy, it will not happen overnight. But I am old enough having come of political age during the Vietnam War, when we were quite divided as a country. This is perhaps more consequential. But I believe in us.

Intro (Ralph Ranalli): Hi. It鈥檚 Ralph Ranalli. Welcome back to the Harvard Kennedy School PolicyCast. Ambassador Wendy Sherman is a diplomat鈥檚 diplomat. A winner of the presidential National Security Medal, she鈥檚 also no stranger to decoding the moves and motivations of autocratic leaders. During the Clinton administration, she was a counselor to the State Department and coordinated policy for the United States鈥 negotiations with North Korea and President Kim Jong Il about its nuclear missile program. During the Obama years, she was appointed as undersecretary of state for political affairs by Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and was the lead negotiator for the Iran nuclear deal鈥痓etween the regime in Tehran and the five countries that make up UN Security Council鈥檚 permanent members鈥攖he U.S., China, Russia, France, and the UK鈥攁s well as Germany. Under President Biden, she became the first woman to serve as Deputy Secretary of State and was the department鈥檚 point person on relations with President Xi Jinping and China. Now she鈥檚 back at the Kennedy School, as a Senior Fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs and a Hauser Leadership Fellow at the Center for Public Leadership, where she is also a former director.鈥疭he鈥檚 arrived just in time to help students, faculty, and others in the greater Harvard community make sense of Trump administration actions and strategies that in less than three months have radically reconfigured America鈥檚 relationships with traditional allies and adversaries. They鈥檝e also changed the course of geopolitics and economics in ways that she says could have profound repercussions on everything from global economic stability to the future of democracy to nuclear proliferation. So how do you make sense of the seeming chaos that is Trump 2.0? We鈥檝e asked her to share her thoughts with our PolicyCast listeners as well.  

Ralph Ranalli: Wendy, welcome to PolicyCast.  

Wendy Sherman: Thank you. It鈥檚 great to be with you this morning.    

Ralph Ranalli: When I was preparing for our chat and reviewing all the things that have gone on over the last couple of months, I couldn鈥檛 help thinking of the two astronauts, Sunni Williams and Butch Wilmore, who were supposed to go to the International Space Station for eight days and ended up spending nine months up there. And I just wonder what it must have been like for them to come back to a world that is really very different and a very, very different America nine months later.  

If you look at all the things that President Trump has done in this short span of time: He鈥檚 fractured the United States relationship with Europe and called our commitment to NATO into question. He鈥檚 blamed Ukraine for Russia鈥檚 aggression and he鈥檚 frozen military to Kiev. He鈥檚 withdrawn the U.S. from key United Nations and international institutions, initiated a global tariff war, and interrupted the delivery of American aid and humanitarian assistance around the world. And with the things he鈥檚 said about Canada, the Panama Canal, Greenland, and Gaza, he鈥檚 increasingly signaled that he would like to break what has been the basic tenet of the postwar order, which is that you don鈥檛 invade or grab somebody else鈥檚 sovereign territory. That鈥檚 supposed to be fundamentally out of bounds. Before the election, you said you were concerned about U.S. foreign policy if Trump was elected. Just to start out is, my questions is: How does the current reality match up to what your pre-election expectations? Could you have imagined nine months ago, when those astronauts went into space, that we would be where we are now?  

Wendy Sherman: I think we鈥檙e in a really dangerous place, quite frankly. The morning we are taping this, in addition to that summary, an excellent one, of all of the things that have happened in just a little over two months. We have the president issuing an executive order to look at the Smithsonian Institute and the zoo to get rid of any wrong ideology. I鈥檓 not sure how you do that at a zoo. An executive order saying that federal employees can鈥檛 unionize. But the Smithsonian one is a further amplification of what we鈥檝e seen in national security and foreign policy, which is really heading in a direction of a strong man, authoritarian view of the world. I think we all should have studied President McKinley more closely quite frankly. I鈥檝e read some short bios of his, and not only did he support tariffs, which President Trump certainly does, but tariffs in a world where we didn鈥檛 have an interconnected world, we didn鈥檛 have the era of globalization that we鈥檝e just had. But McKinley also believed in imperialism. That was the time of acquiring Hawaii and Guam. And I think President Trump is really in that mold.  I believe that he believes in spheres of influence. That President Putin can do what he wants. That President Xi Jingping can have Asia and perhaps take Taiwan. That the United States can capture Canada and have a different relationship with Mexico and the Western Hemisphere. This is a very different world order鈥攐ne that concerns me tremendously in terms of not only our power and our ability to operate in the world. But what it means for the rights and freedom and values of our country.  

Ralph Ranalli: Well, you went right to where I was planning to take us eventually, which is trying to figure out what the through line is to Trump鈥檚 flurry of foreign policy moves, economic policy moves, and of the domestic policy moves he鈥檚 made through more than 100 executive orders. I know a lot of people just sort of see chaos, but is there a through line? A theme around how all of these things are connected? I read a piece in Foreign Policy magazine that said even though people are struggling to process and make sense of Trump鈥檚 actions, they can be understood under a theory you could call autocratic regime consolidation. Because if you look at more of his individual actions, you鈥檝e got his surrogates JD Vance and Elon Musk promoting Germany鈥檚 far right AfD party, even as Trump is embracing Putin and Hungary鈥檚 autocratic president Victor Orban. And the countries that he is now de-aligning with are mostly liberal democracies. And the idea would be that Trump is trying to discredit the notion of liberal democracy in order to鈥攊n combination with all these other moves鈥攍egitimize the authoritarian approach he prefers. What do you think of that as a through line to understand the things he鈥檚 done?

Wendy Sherman: It worries me enormously that what you鈥檝e just articulated is exactly what鈥檚 happening. It was interesting. I鈥檝e met with lots and lots of students when I鈥檝e been here this week. Always gives you a perspective that鈥檚 terribly important, particularly how young people see the world. And there was a young woman who was from Russia, and she said, 鈥淚 don鈥檛 think Americans understand what鈥檚 happening.鈥 She鈥檚 a dissident. I don鈥檛 think Americans appreciate what is occurring in real time. And indeed, the polling data before the election show that most Americans don鈥檛 know what authoritarians are, what that word means, how their rights and freedoms will be taken away.  

Everyone鈥檚 been very focused this week, understandably. On the Tufts PhD student who was, in essence, kidnapped on a street in Somerville and disappeared to Louisiana without charges, without access to a lawyer. I don鈥檛 know, maybe there鈥檚 something more we don鈥檛 know. But all we know right now is that she wrote an op-ed. And I believe鈥攁nd I know that some people wouldn鈥檛 agree鈥攖hat in our country we have free speech, and in the constitution it says 鈥淲e, the people.鈥 It doesn鈥檛 say 鈥淲e, the citizens,鈥 it says 鈥渨e, the people.鈥 And folks who are here with a green card or a student visa should have a right to speak, because if they don鈥檛 have a right of freedom of speech, it鈥檚 a very short walk to American citizens not having the right to speak. And so I think this has been very present in all of my discussions this week, because we have a lot of young people here who are on student visas and quite frankly, they鈥檙e terrified.  

Ralph Ranalli: I mean, it鈥檚 very poignant that you talked to a Russian dissident, because we just had a Harvard-affiliated Russian researcher, Kseniia Petrova, who was also arrested and taken to Louisiana and is in the process of being deported back to Russia. And she is again, a dissident and faces potential...

Wendy Sherman: Absolutely.  

Ralph Ranalli: ...persecution...  

Wendy Sherman: Absolutely.  

Ralph Ranalli: When she gets back.  

Wendy Sherman: Without a doubt.  

Ralph Ranalli: I did want to go around the world a little bit  

Wendy Sherman: Sure.  

Ralph Ranalli: And sort of talk through some of these realignments. Let鈥檚 start with the EU and NATO, because that will inexorably lead us to Russia. If you are in the shoes of NATO allies or, I don鈥檛 know what you call 鈥榚m these days....  

Wendy Sherman: Well, I鈥檓 hoping, I鈥檓 hoping they鈥檙e still our allies.

Ralph Ranalli: Yes, exactly. Alright. If we hopefully describe them as still our allies, and you鈥檙e in their shoes, what are you thinking right now and what are you planning to do for the future to address this radically changed situation?

Wendy Sherman: Well, I was very glad to hear that President Trump and President Macron spoke yesterday morning before President Macron and Prime Minister Starmer of the UK held a meeting with other leaders in Europe to support President Zelensky of Ukraine and the Ukrainian need to survive. So I鈥檓 glad that there are still lines of communication and that we have not ended these alliances, which are so critical because we are really stronger in the world when we have this Transatlantic relationship and when we work together.  

NATO, as I think many of your listeners may know, have this famous Article Five, which says, an attack on one is an attack on all. And that article has only been invoked once, and it was for the United States of America after 9/11, when we went into Afghanistan, and we had Canadians and Danes and others with us fighting on our behalf. It hasn鈥檛 been used any other time. So both NATO and the European Union, in my view, are very critical allies and very critical to our power and strength in the world. Europe, nonetheless... I think what good will come out of this tension is that Europe is going to strengthen its own defense capabilities. That鈥檚 something that鈥檚 been needed for a very long time, and I think it has to be inter-operational with NATO and NATO forces. But it will be important for Europe to show its own strength and its own capacity. So there鈥檚 some good that鈥檚 coming out of this. It will take Europe a long time to get where it wants to go, because they don鈥檛 have those capabilities quite yet. But I think it鈥檚 quite important going forward. So I鈥檓 hoping that those phone calls, those open lines of communication happen. And it will be interesting this summer to see whether President Trump attends the NATO summit. I hope that he does. If he doesn鈥檛, I think it鈥檒l be a very loud message.  

Ralph Ranalli: We had the just now former Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo on this podcast just a couple months ago, and he was saying that Europe needs to not just prepare itself militarily, but also to prepare itself economically.

Wendy Sherman: Mm-hmm.  

Ralph Ranalli: And to really get its house in order economically in order to become what he said is the leader that the world needs, if the US is going to withdraw under Trump from that strategic position of leadership. What do you think about Europe鈥檚 economic position in the world and what might lie ahead for Europe economically, given the both tariffs that are going up but also possibilities for other economic realignments for the EU?  

Wendy Sherman: Yeah.  

Ralph Ranalli: Given the ones that the United States is giving up,  

Wendy Sherman: Right? Well, we will see what happens on April 2nd, whether in fact there are additional tariffs all over the world. President Trump said the other day, if countries respond to the tariffs he鈥檚 put on by putting more tariffs on us, then he鈥檒l put more tariffs on them and we will truly already have a trade war that I think doesn鈥檛 help anybody, quite frankly. I understand the Ppresident鈥檚 desire to have manufacturing back in the United States. I understand his wanting to make sure we are confident in our supply chains. But we all believed that that didn鈥檛 mean everything had to happen in the United States. We had to just make sure we had reliable partners that had maybe something that we would need in a time of war or time of a pandemic, which is what I think really illuminated the supply chain problem.  

I think that Europe is thinking its own economic future. They are strong. With us, they鈥檝e been really strong. They鈥檙e tremendously important trading partners. I think one of the things that isn鈥檛 talked about a lot right now is Europe鈥檚 relationship with China and Europe鈥檚 relationship with Russia, and whether in fact Europe will go back to relying on Russia for oil and gas; and go back on de-risking the relationship with China鈥攏ot decoupling, but de-risking it, as Ursula von der Leyen said quite clearly in a terrific speech she gave about the Europeans鈥 relationship with China. So I think it鈥檚 critical that the United States and Europe be together in our approach toward China, and it does worry me tremendously, that there may be some backsliding by Europe because they will feel they can鈥檛 rely on the United States and may move back to China when in fact they had gotten quite aligned with us, on that strategy and that policy direction.  

Ralph Ranalli: You鈥檝e done work on China, and I think China鈥檚 fascinating, but if we can just make a quick pit stop in Russia first...  

Wendy Sherman: Sure.  

Ralph Ranalli: ...before we head over to China. There鈥檚 a lot of concern, obviously that, with the US withdrawal of support for Ukraine, that could embolden Putin to maybe make other moves against other countries. You鈥檝e got the Baltics, you鈥檝e got Poland, who are understandably nervous, but they鈥檙e members of NATO and they鈥檙e covered under Article Five. But then you鈥檝e got a country like Moldova, for example, which has neutrality enshrined in its constitution, is not a member of NATO, but on the other hand, Russia has already lost 300,000 troops in Ukraine, and they鈥檙e backfilling with North Korean troops. How do you handicap the chances of鈥攊f things keep trending this way with this kind of coziness between Trump and Putin, the U.S. and Russia鈥攈ow do you handicap the chances of further Russian territorial aggression in Europe?  

Wendy Sherman: Putin is very wily. I would not expect that to happen immediately. I think he will bide his time and find a moment to in fact attack someone else. I agree with you. Moldova is certainly in his sights. A lot of Russian-speaking Moldovans. Putin, I believe, feels very strongly that he must recreate the Russian Federation and the Russian Empire. That starts with Ukraine, but it doesn鈥檛 end with Ukraine. So I think everybody has a right to be nervous and there is no doubt that I think it鈥檚 hard for Americans to understand why this matters to them. And it matters because we are part of NATO. We would want to come to the support of NATO countries if Putin takes a further stand. It could set off a world war.  

Students ask me all the time, 鈥淗ow do you deal with policies that you worked hard for and then they are trashed by the next administration?鈥 And I say to them, 鈥淵ou know, you have to persist.鈥 World War I was called the War to End All Wars. And 20 years later, which is a very short time in history, we had World War II. So I don鈥檛 want to freak everybody out by saying we鈥檙e on the cusp of World War III. What I would say is that that is certainly a possibility, if certain actions take place and Putin feels he has freedom to do whatever he wants.

Ralph Ranalli: The other thing about nervousness in Europe and elsewhere鈥擳aiwan鈥攊s that it鈥檚 not just an abstraction. It has real consequences, for example, for nuclear proliferation. If the countries that have been living under the Pax Americana created by the US nuclear umbrella no longer feel that sense of protection, there鈥檚 going to be a move among them to build their own nuclear weapons for deterrence. I think South Korea has talked about doing so, Europe has certainly talked about developing more nuclear weapons. Currently I think nine countries are believed to have nuclear weapons. Sixty years ago, President John F. Kennedy said he feared that there would be as many as 25 by now. So we鈥檝e actually done a very good job鈥攁nd you鈥檝e personally played a part in this too with your work negotiating the Iran nuclear deal鈥攊n trying to keep a lid on that nuclear proliferation.

How concerned are you now? Because I鈥檓 old enough to remember when I was in school and we did the duck and cover...  

Wendy Sherman: Sure. Under your desk,  

Ralph Ranalli: ...under the desks. And it wasn鈥檛 about school shooters then, it was about the Russians dropping the bomb.  

Wendy Sherman: Absolutely.  

Ralph Ranalli: How concerned are you about nuclear proliferation in the short to medium term, given where we are right now?

Wendy Sherman: So I鈥檓 actually on a task force that is co-led by NTI, the Carnegie Endowment, and the Belfer Center here at Harvard Kennedy School. And we鈥檙e looking exactly at this, and we hope to have a report by this summer, addressing where we are when it comes to nuclear weapons and nuclear energy and where we may be headed. So the short answer to you is, yes, I鈥檓 concerned. I have heard from... the Kennedy School鈥檚 a very international school, so I鈥檝e listened and talked with lots of folks from lots of countries all over the world while I鈥檝e been here this week. And, this issue has come up several times, where countries say: 鈥淲e are considering getting nuclear weapons because we think it鈥檒l be a deterrent. It鈥檒l give us leverage in negotiating with North Korea鈥 or with whomever else they鈥檙e concerned about.

And what I鈥檝e said is, 鈥淚 understand the impulse to want to get them,鈥 but it is so dangerous, because not all nuclear weapons are the same. They鈥檙e not all safeguarded well, they鈥檙e not all managed well. And, in fact it creates enormous danger for the world. And so I sincerely hope no one else feels they need to get nuclear weapons, and I think we should do everything we can to ensure there鈥檚 not further proliferation.

Ralph Ranalli: Last year you mentioned some concerns about the growing cooperation between Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran.  

Wendy Sherman: Yeah.  

Ralph Ranalli: And it鈥檚 sort of an alliance of autocracy. I think you called it the 鈥淎xis of chaos.鈥 Tell me about what your concerns are with those four countries in particular.

Wendy Sherman: Yeah, people have named it the Axis of Chaos or Alliance of Adversaries. I鈥檓 not sure it鈥檚 really quite an alliance. I think there are vectors of common interests and so they work together, like the North Koreans sending troops to help Russia. And Russia is giving things back to North Korea that North Korea needs. China and Russia ostensibly have a relationship, but I think Xi Jinping is largely concerned with his own country and how he鈥檚 moving it forward and dealing with a difficult economic situation right now.  

Iran certainly looks to see where it can ally with these countries. But Iran is somewhat weak right now because of the pushback against Hamas and Hezbollah and militias in Syria, as well as of course the Houthis in Yemen. And we鈥檝e seen, as we鈥檙e talking today, that Iran has sent a letter back through the Omanis to the Trump administration basically saying they鈥檇 be open to indirect talks, but not direct talks. And they鈥檒l talk about what they call their civil nuclear program, but their military situation is not, I think, on the table from their perspective. So we鈥檒l see what the Trump administration does. So I鈥檓 not quite ready to say this is a true alliance among these four. But they certainly work together when it鈥檚 in their interest to do so.  

Ralph Ranalli: Right. Trump has been very belligerent towards Iran. I think he鈥檚 said that he wants to try and get Iran鈥檚 oil exports down to zero. But it鈥檚 the Chinese who have been helping Iran evade those...

Wendy Sherman: Yes.  

Ralph Ranalli: ...those oil sanctions.  

Let鈥檚 talk about China for a little bit. China鈥檚 a very interesting part of this equation. China was part of your portfolio at the State Department when you were Deputy Secretary of State. If you are Xi Jinping, what are you thinking right now about these developments, and if they are advantageous for China? Because there is open talk in China about how Trump鈥檚 foreign policy moves open up opportunities for them.  

Wendy Sherman: Well, I think probably Xi sees Trump as a very transactional president, so maybe they can make a deal. I think Trump very much wants to compete with China in terms of AI and quantum and biotech and technology in general. It is complicated because I think as most people know now, Elon Musk鈥攚ho has become, I don鈥檛 know, a quasi-partner, a presidential partner鈥攈as huge interests in China. I think his largest Tesla plant is in China. So, this鈥檒l be complicated, but potentially quite transactional. And I鈥檓 quite concerned that President Trump will basically say to, Xi: 鈥淪ell us TikTok, do the following five things, and then whatever you want to do with Taiwan is your decision. South China Sea, you know, do what you can. We鈥檙e not going to get in your way.鈥 And that will be incredibly destabilizing in Asia.  

Ralph Ranalli: So it鈥檚 not quite an analog to the quote, unquote Axis of Chaos, but in the economic arena China is also involved in what you could label an alliance of opportunity, which are the so-called BRICS countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa. For example, I believe Brazil鈥檚 president just invited Mexico to the BRICS Summit in April. I don鈥檛, I don鈥檛 know if Mexico has accepted, but certainly given the tariffs situation between them and the Trump administration, there might be some willingness to go explore that on Mexico鈥檚 part.  

More broadly, China, has tried extend its soft power, but it鈥檚 had some trouble doing that because other countries don鈥檛 quite trust China because it鈥檚 an authoritarian regime and because there鈥檚 all this military tension with its neighbors because of the buildup in the South China Sea. But are things like Trump鈥檚 cutting off of USAID funding, for American humanitarian projects around the world, which is a retreat by America on its soft power. Does that  open up an opportunity for China to extend its soft power and further its economic and strategic interests?

Wendy Sherman: Absolutely. Without a doubt. I mean, the destruction of USAID is extraordinary, and truly not in our self-interest. And I want to make sure folks understand. USAID, of course, was critical for humanitarian assistance, whether it was getting vaccines or HIV aids drugs or dealing with pandemics. But what I want people to understand is鈥 Let鈥檚 take Ebola. We helped Liberia and others deal with an Ebola outbreak. We did it because we have a great humanitarian impulse in our country, but we also did it because people get on airplanes, and we didn鈥檛 want Ebola to come to the United States. That really compelled us to help. It was really to keep Ebola from becoming a disease here, to American citizens.

And earlier, USAID had helped to train Nigerians to become nurses. Now, why did we do that? We did that because when that Ebola strike happened and countries didn鈥檛 have enough medical personnel, 200 Nigerian nurses came to the area to help stop the spread of Ebola and therefore ensure it didn鈥檛 come to the United States. So, all of this is, yes, about our great, wonderful generosity and humanitarian impulses. But it鈥檚 also about protecting Americans.  

We also use our soft power, or as Hillary Clinton once said, smart power, to really get things done. If we have our military in an area and the military is concerned about the rise of terrorism, which might ultimately come to our shores. They want to make sure that that village might have water, that the kids have schooling, that they see that the food that comes, comes in packages that say 鈥淔rom the United States of America,鈥 so that kids grow up not wanting to be terrorists, not taking on that ideology, not getting paid by a cartel to ship drugs, but see that they have a different kind of future. That protects us. So, yes, USAID was about our humanitarian generosity, but it was fundamentally about helping America and American citizens.  

And the last point I鈥檇 make is I think at least 20% of all farm production in the United States was sold to USAID to be used abroad. And so our farmers are very unhappy that USAID has been destroyed. Because it means that some of their export capability is gone.  

Ralph Ranalli: Right. They鈥檝e lost a big market.  

Wendy Sherman: Yep.  

Ralph Ranalli: Speaking of important markets, I think what is perhaps the most inexplicable鈥攅ven to people who are just casual observers of foreign policy鈥攊s the current breakdown of the relationship between the U.S. and Canada, and to somewhat similar extent between the U.S. and Mexico. I mean, there鈥檚 all kinds of interesting theories about why Trump is picking a fight with Canada鈥攍ike years ago he had some hotel ventures there that went bust, and maybe now he sees Canada as a 51st state where he can do a lot of great real estate deals. But what do you think is the real reason in your mind for the tensions with Canada and for Trump being so acrimonious with Canada?  

Wendy Sherman: So, I don鈥檛 really know. Trying to understand the president鈥檚 mind is something I don鈥檛 do very well. It鈥檚 so alien to me how he goes about life, and how he鈥檚 going about his presidency, that it鈥檚 hard to fathom.

I do think it鈥檚 destructive. Mark Carney鈥攚ho鈥檚 the current Prime Minister and has called an election quickly to try to cement his premiership鈥攈as said that the relationship with the United States is over. That is a profound, profound statement. Now he鈥檚 doing it in part for domestic politics. As I think you know, well, the liberals in Canada were doing terribly until Trump attacked Canada and it really helped to lead to Carney鈥檚 becoming the Prime Minister and now calling this quick election. Even though the conservatives have come back up some, I think most people believe Kearney will prevail,  

Ralph Ranalli: Right. The liberals are ahead at the polls.  

Wendy Sherman: The liberals. Right. The liberals will prevail thanks to Donald Trump, quite frankly. It鈥檚 incredibly destructive. We share so much. Hundreds of thousands of people go back and forth our border every single day. People live on one side or the other. It鈥檚 very sad to me that three very prominent Yale scholars, including Timothy Snyder, who鈥檚 written so much about democracy.  

Ralph Ranalli: Right.  

Wendy Sherman: Have now gone to the University of Toronto, to protect themselves. That鈥檚 really scary, that they felt a need to leave the United States to protect themselves and went to Canada. And my guess is a lot has come up. And this relationship, this destruction of this relationship, has meant that Canadians aren鈥檛 coming to the United States as tourists.

Ralph Ranalli: Flights are down. Something like 70% .

Wendy Sherman: Stunning, just stunning. That鈥檚 not good for our tourism industry. So I don鈥檛 know what productively comes out of this. Maybe pipelines. Maybe market share. Maybe anger for previous hotel problems. I don鈥檛 know. But it is not helpful, to us in any way that I can see.  

Ralph Ranalli: Turning to the southern border, in addition to the bad blood being created by Trump鈥檚 on-again, off-again tariffs, there鈥檚 been a good amount of, I think you鈥檇 probably call it saber rattling, on the Trump administration鈥檚 part with Mexico. You鈥檝e had eight Mexican drug cartels that have been reclassified as terrorist organizations. You鈥檝e had a U.S. military Stryker brigade combat team move to the border. You鈥檝e had Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth say quote 鈥淎ll options are on the table鈥 unquote. Do you think that message is purely about Mexico, or do you think, going back to much earlier in the conversation we were talking about President McKinley鈥檚 foreign policy, that this is more of a broader message to Latin America and what he views as the U.S. sphere of influence in the Americas?

Wendy Sherman: Perhaps it is that. You know, the issue that still has tremendous popularity among the American people is what the President is doing on migration and people coming into this country. I must say it was a smart strategy by Governor Abbott and Governor DeSantis to send migrants to northern cities to nationalize the problem. The irony is, of course, by the end of the Biden administration, people weren鈥檛 coming across the border in huge waves anymore. But Trump has claimed credit now for closing the border and not having people come in. So it is still incredibly popular to be very tough in this arena.  

People also were very and understandably concerned about the transit of fentanyl across our border. I certainly know people who have had their children die from a fentanyl overdose. It has been a horrible, along with opioids, a terrible problem in the United States. And so again, I think there was a lot of support, understandably, by the American people, to do this. I find it very terrifying that in Florida there are some who are advocating laws to claw back protections of child labor to replace the migrant labor that has been pushed out of the country. A) That鈥檚 horrifying. I hope it does not pass. I hope it鈥檚 just the far, far, far right trying to move in that direction. But we are going to have a labor shortage in some places because of this and we鈥檒l have to figure out how to deal with that.  

I think going back to the beginning of our conversation, everyone who comes here鈥攈owever they come here鈥攈ave a right to due process. That鈥檚 who we are. We鈥檙e supposed to be a country where the rule of law is real. And I hope that we get back to a place where that occurs.  

Ralph Ranalli: So we usually ask our guests on policy cast for policy recommendations for US or world policymakers. I鈥檓 not a hundred percent sure that this current administration is all that receptive to policy recommendations. So I was wondering if instead I could once again put you in the place of policy makers in countries that have seen their relationships with the United States deteriorate. The EU, Canada, Mexico,  

Wendy Sherman: Denmark, Greenland...

Ralph Ranalli: Denmark, Greenland.  

Wendy Sherman: Right.  

Ralph Ranalli: You鈥檙e a seasoned diplomat, you鈥檝e been involved in many very difficult and challenging negotiations, including the Iran nuclear deal. As a diplomat, what would your advice to them be about how to navigate this entirely new world we seem to be living in.  

Wendy Sherman: So every leader in every country has to put their country first. I know America First is this, you know, banner for the Trump administration. But the fact is, leaders鈥 responsibility is to take care of their citizens and to ensure peace and security, and prosperity. So I expect every leader to do what they need to do to take care of the citizens of their country, because that鈥檚 their responsibility. And where the United States has been part of that effort, to try to keep lines of communication open, because we do have change.  

I was talking with mid-career students from all over the world last evening. And, you know, I said I know everybody鈥檚 shaken. I鈥檓 shaken by the dramatic change here. But you all live in countries where there鈥檚 also been dramatic change. Where your leaders have changed. You鈥檝e either moved forward or you鈥檝e moved backward. I think people find this more dislocating because the United States has been such a huge power in the world, and so consequential and has been that shining city on a hill that Ronald Reagan spoke of. And now they wonder who we are now and what it will mean for them.

So do what you need to do to take care of your citizens. Keep the lines of communication open. I believe in American resilience. I believe we will get back to the values that are who we are fundamentally. It may take time, it will take a lot of hard work. It will not be easy, it will not happen overnight. But I am old enough having come of political age during the Vietnam War when we were quite divided as a country. This is perhaps more consequential. But I believe in us. And I think we will find our way forward. So keep those lines of communication open.  

Ralph Ranalli: Well, Ambassador Wendy Sherman, we are in an extraordinary time and I could not think of anyone with more wisdom and experience necessary to have a comprehensive and enlightening discussion about this than you. And I鈥檓 so glad you were here.  

Wendy Sherman: Thank you. I really appreciate this podcast and the work that you do. And the work that everyone鈥檚 trying to do to hold on to our democracy. Thank you.  

Outro (Ralph Ranalli): Thanks for listening. If you liked this episode, please leave us a review on Apple Podcasts or your favorite podcasting app, and while you鈥檙e there, hit the subscribe button so you don鈥檛 miss any of our important upcoming episodes. So, until next time, remember to speak bravely, and listen generously.