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Efficient Warnings, Not “Wolf or Puppy” Warnings

Governments often require that products carry warnings to inform people about risks.

Loss Sequencing in Banking Networks: Threatened Banks as Strategic Dominoes

We demonstrate in a stylized banking network that a single large loss has the potential to leave markedly different impacts on the financial system than does a sequence of moderate losses of the same

Secular Stagnation and Monetary Policy

This article is based on the author's Homer Jones Memorial Lecture delivered at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, April 6, 2016.

Globalization and Chinese Growth: Ends of Trends?

Two big questions look somewhat different than they did 10 or 20 years ago. First: would the long-term trend of globalization continue?

Classifying Exchange Rate Regimes: 15 Years Later

Levy Yeyati and Sturzenegger (2001, 2003, 2005) proposed an exchange rate regime classification based on cluster analysis to group countries according to the relative volatility of exchange rates and

Bias in Official Fiscal Forecasts: Can Private Forecasts Help?

Government forecasts of GDP growth and budget balances are generally more over-optimistic than private sector forecasts.

Global Cycles: Capital Flows, Commodities, and Sovereign Defaults, 1815–2015

Reckoning With Inequality

When it comes to the rise in economic inequality since the 1970s in the United States and some other advanced economies, it doesn’t really matter which measure of income distribution we choose: They a

Does It Matter If Statistical Agencies Frame the Month’s CPI Report on a 1-Month or 12-Month Basis?

When the US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases new numbers, in theory it should make no difference whether the press release emphasizes the most recent 1-month number, which is what it does, or the 1

Off Pitch: Football’s Financial Integrity Weaknesses, and How to Strengthen Them

Men’s professional football is the biggest sport in the world, producing (by our estimate) US $33 billion a year.