Faculty Publications

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Feature: Why Doesn’t the U.S. Have National Health Insurance?

Marcella Alsan finds that the rise of private health insurance in the U.S. was enabled by an interest group-financed campaign that used ideology to influence the behavior and views of ordinary citizens.

Feature: Market Power & Tax Design in the Firearms Industry

Luis Armona shows that simple tax redesign can lead firearm manufacturers to set prices better-targeted towards social welfare while maintaining industry profits.

Feature: Fiscal Policy & the Pandemic-Era Surge in U.S. Inflation

Doug Elmendorf and Karen Dynan argue that the U.S. inflation surge was driven by an unexpectedly inelastic supply unable to meet the boom in demand.

Feature: The Value of Race & Ethnicity in Estimating Disease Risk

Soroush Saghafian and Sharad Goel develop a decision analytic framework for navigating the trade-offs present in accounting for race and ethnicity to estimate disease risk.

Harvard Kennedy School faculty disseminate their research in working publications and papers that contribute to public knowledge and fuel policy innovation. This list features recent faculty publications, including journal articles, books, edited volumes, research papers, and public testimony.

Faculty Publications

The ABC’s of Who Benefits from Working with AI: Ability, Beliefs, and Calibration

Caplin, Andrew, David J. Deming, Shangwen Li, Daniel J. Martin, Philip Marx, Ben Weidmann, and Kadachi Jiada Ye. "The ABC’s of Who Benefits from Working with AI: Ability, Beliefs, and Calibration." NBER Working Paper Series, October 2024.

Is the United States undergoing a manufacturing renaissance that will boost the middle class?

Lawrence, Robert Z. "Is the United States undergoing a manufacturing renaissance that will boost the middle class?" PIEE Policy Brief Series, October 2024.

Pan-Arctic Methane: Current Monitoring Capabilities, Approaches for Improvement, and Implications for Global Mitigation Targets

Ackermann, Mark, Clare Amann, ...John Holdren et al. "Pan-Arctic Methane: Current Monitoring Capabilities, Approaches for Improvement, and Implications for Global Mitigation Targets." Wilson Center Polar Institute, October 2024.

Happy Birthday to America’s Most Underrated President

Walt, Stephen. "Happy Birthday to America’s Most Underrated President." Foreign Policy, October 1, 2024.

How Wyoming’s Exodus of Young Adults Holds Back Economic Diversification

Protzer, Eric, Thao-Nguyên Bùi, Tim Freeman, Ricardo Hausmann, Sophia Henn, Farah Kaddah, Lucas Lamby, Tim O’Brien, Alejandro Rueda-Sanz, and Ricardo Villasmil. "How Wyoming’s Exodus of Young Adults Holds Back Economic Diversification." Growth Lab Working Paper Series, October 2024.

Tracking COVID-19 Infections Using Survey Data on Rapid At-Home Tests

Santillana,Mauricio, Ata A. Uslu, Tamanna Urmi, Alexi Quintana-Mathe, James N. Druckman, Katherine Ognyanova, Matthew Baum, Roy H. Perlis, and David Lazer. "Tracking COVID-19 Infections Using Survey Data on Rapid At-Home Tests." JAMA Network Open 7.9 (September 2024): e2435442.

Dynamic scoring: A progress report on why, when, and how

Elmendorf, Douglas, Glenn Hubbard, and Heidi Williams. "Dynamic scoring: A progress report on why, when, and how." Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, September 26-27, 2024.

County-Level Enrollment in Medicare Advantage Plans Offering Expanded Supplemental Benefits

Yang, Zhiyou, Emily Zhu, David Cheng, Mary Price, Margarita Alegria, John Hsu, Joseph P. Newhouse, and Vicki Fung. "County-Level Enrollment in Medicare Advantage Plans Offering Expanded Supplemental Benefits." JAMA Network Open 7.9 (September 2024): e2433972.

The Questions Harris and Trump Still Need to Be Asked

Walt, Stephen M. "The Questions Harris and Trump Still Need to Be Asked." Foreign Policy, September 17, 2024.

Satellite Political Movements: How Grassroots Activists Bolster Trump and Bolsonaro in the United States and Brazil

McKenna, Elizabeth, and Catharina O'Donnell. "Satellite Political Movements: How Grassroots Activists Bolster Trump and Bolsonaro in the United States and Brazil." American Behavioral Scientist (September 12, 2024).

Review of Building a Nation at War: Transnational Knowledge Networks and the Development of China during and after World War II

Mitter, Rana. Review of Building a Nation at War: Transnational Knowledge Networks and the Development of China during and after World War II, by J. Megan Greene. American Historical Review, 129.3, September 2024: 1221–1222.

In International Politics, Be Careful What You Wish for

Walt, Stephen M. "In International Politics, Be Careful What You Wish for." Foreign Policy, September 4, 2024.

Ambiguous Dynamic Treatment Regimes: A Reinforcement Learning Approach

Saghafian, Soroush. "Ambiguous Dynamic Treatment Regimes: A Reinforcement Learning Approach." Management Science 70.9 (September 2024): 5667-5690.

Review of The Resilient Society

Furman, Jason. Review of The Resilient Society, by Markus K. Brunnermeier. Journal of Economic Literature, 62.3, September 2024: 1258-1259.

Carbon Copy: US Public Opinion on the Diffusion of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms

Ingles, Tayla, Rochelle Sun, and Dustin Tingley. "Carbon Copy: US Public Opinion on the Diffusion of Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanisms." September 1, 2024.

Data-Driven Fleet Management Improves Safety in New York City

Goldsmith, Stephen. "Data-Driven Fleet Management Improves Safety in New York City." Government Technology (September/October 2024).

Skills and Human Capital in the Labor Market

Deming, David, and Mikko I. Silliman. "Skills and Human Capital in the Labor Market." NBER Working Paper Series, September 2024.

The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI

Bick, Alexander, Adam Blandin, and David J. Deming. "The Rapid Adoption of Generative AI." NBER Working Paper Series, September 2024.

Inclusive Teaching: Spotting Social Isolation in the Classroom

Alan, Sule, Michela Carlana, and Marinella Leone. "Inclusive Teaching: Spotting Social Isolation in the Classroom." NBER Working Paper Series, September 2024.

Global Trends in Innovation Patterns: A Complexity Approach

Chacua, Christian, Shreyas Gadgin Matha, Matte Hartog, Ricardo Hausmann, and Muhammed A. Yildirim. "Global Trends in Innovation Patterns: A Complexity Approach." Growth Lab Working Paper Series, September 2024.

Innovation Policies Under Economic Complexity

Chacua, Christian, Shreyas Gadgin Matha, Matte Hartog, Ricardo Hausmann, and Muhammed A. Yildirim. "Innovation Policies Under Economic Complexity." Growth Lab Working Paper Series, September 2024.

A Learning Agenda for Community-Driven Development: Responding to Complex Contextual, Evaluation, and Inference Challenges

Barron, Patrick John, Patricia Maria Fernendes, Stephen Joseph Winkler, and Michael Woolcock. "A Learning Agenda for Community-Driven Development: Responding to Complex Contextual, Evaluation, and Inference Challenges." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper, 08/27/2024.

What Data-Rich Assessments of Socioeconomic Inequality and Mobility in Rich Countries Overlook in Poor Countries

Van Der Weide, Roy, and Michael Woolcock. "What Data-Rich Assessments of Socioeconomic Inequality and Mobility in Rich Countries Overlook in Poor Countries." World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series, 08/27/2024.

How will advanced AI systems impact democracy?

Summerfield, Christopher, ... Mathias Risse, et al. "How will advanced AI systems impact democracy?" 27 August 2024.

On Foreign Policy, U.S. Parties Don’t Have the Power

Walt, Stephen M. "On Foreign Policy, U.S. Parties Don’t Have the Power." Foreign Policy, August 26, 2024.

Prevalence and correlates of irritability among U.S. adults

Perlis, Roy H., Ata Uslu, Jonathan Schulman, Aliayah Himelfarb, Faith M. Gunning, Nili Solomonov, Mauricio Santillana, Matthew A. Baum, James N. Druckman, Katherine Ognyanova, and David Lazer. "Prevalence and correlates of irritability among U.S. adults." Neuropsychopharmacology (24 August 2024).

The Murky Meaning of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive

Walt, Stephen M. "The Murky Meaning of Ukraine’s Kursk Offensive." Foreign Policy, August 28, 2024.

Finance Goes to Hollywood

Frankel, Jeffrey. "Finance Goes to Hollywood." Project Syndicate, August 23, 2024.

Recruiting Healthcare Workers on the International Labor Market: A Megastudy

Keppeler, Florian, Elizabeth Linos, Brenda Sciepura, Karalyn Lacey, and Christian Bøtcher Jacobsen. "Recruiting Healthcare Workers on the International Labor Market: A Megastudy." 2024-08-23.

Behind the Curve: Can Manufacturing Still Provide Inclusive Growth?

Lawrence, Robert Z. Behind the Curve: Can Manufacturing Still Provide Inclusive Growth? Peterson Institute for International Economics, 2024.

The Dangerous Decline in Israeli Strategy

Walt, Stephen. "The Dangerous Decline in Israeli Strategy." Foreign Policy, August 16, 2024.

Drivers, adaptations, and public impacts of hospital closures, implications for policy

Saghafian, Soroush. "Drivers, adaptations, and public impacts of hospital closures, implications for policy." Perspectives: Frontiers in Public Health 12 (August 12, 2024).

A research agenda for economic resilience in fossil fuel–dependent communities

Clarke, Leon, Mark Curtis, Ann Eisenberg, Emily Grubert, Julia Hobson Haggerty, Alexander James, Nathan Jensen, Noah Kaufman, Eleanor Krause, Daniel Raimi, Dustin Tingley, and Jeremy Weber. "A research agenda for economic resilience in fossil fuel–dependent communities." Envrionmental Research Energy (August 9, 2024).

The Two Biggest Global Trends Are at War

Walt, Stephen. "The Two Biggest Global Trends Are at War." Foreign Policy, August 6, 2024.

Can Conversational Receptiveness Build Trust in the Media?

Tulan, Dilan, Charles A. Dorison, Nancy Gibbs, and Julia A. Minson. "Can Conversational Receptiveness Build Trust in the Media?" Policy Insights from the Behavioral and Brain Sciences (August 2, 2024).

This Is What Thriving Communities Look Like: Insights from Residents of Four Boston Neighborhoods

Kambath, Amisha, Noor Toraif, and Sandra Susan Smith. "This Is What Thriving Communities Look Like: Insights from Residents of Four Boston Neighborhoods." Roundtable on Racial Disparities in Massachusetts Criminal Courts, Program in Criminal Justice Policy and Management, August 2024.

Leadership Perspective: What Makes Leadership Development Impactful? Exploring a Whole-Person Approach

Born, Dana H., and Ayse Yemiscigil. "Leadership Perspective: What Makes Leadership Development Impactful? Exploring a Whole-Person Approach." Journal of Character Leadership and Development 11.2 (Summer 2024): 84–90.

Labor Market Pathways to Job Quality Mobility in the Service Sector: Evidence from the “Great Resignation”

Woods, Tyler, Dylan Nguyen, Daniel Schneider, and Kristen Harknett. "Labor Market Pathways to Job Quality Mobility in the Service Sector: Evidence from the “Great Resignation”." Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 92 (August 2024): 100962.

Labor market pathways to job quality mobility in the service sector: Evidence from the “Great Resignation”

Woods, Tyler, Dylan Nguyen, Daniel Schneider, and Kristen Harknett. "Labor market pathways to job quality mobility in the service sector: Evidence from the “Great Resignation”." Research in Social Stratification and Mobility 92 (August 2024): 100962.

Trust in Physicians and Hospitals During the COVID-19 Pandemic in a 50-State Survey of US Adults

Perlis, Roy H., Katherine Ognyanova, Ata Uslu, Kristin Lunz Trujillo, Mauricio Santillana, James N. Druckman, Matthew A. Baum, and David Lazer. "Trust in Physicians and Hospitals During the COVID-19 Pandemic in a 50-State Survey of US Adults." JAMA 7.7 (July 2024): e2424984.

Automated Identification of Fall-related Injuries in Unstructured Clinical Notes

Ge, Wendong, Lilian M. G. Coelho, Maria A. Donahue, Hunter J. Rice, Deborah Blacker, John Hsu, Joseph P. Newhouse, Sonia Hernandez-Diaz, Sebastien Haneuse, M. Brandon Westover, and Lidia M. V. R. Moura. "Automated Identification of Fall-related Injuries in Unstructured Clinical Notes." American Journal of Epidemiology (26 July 2024).

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