NBER
Date of Publication:
May 2024
Licensed workers could be shielded from unemployment during recession since occupational
licensing laws are asymmetric—making unlicensed workers an illegal substitute for licensed
workers but not the reverse. We test our hypothesis using a difference-in-differences event study
research design that exploits cross-state variation in licensing laws to compare the unemployment
rate between licensed and unlicensed workers before and after the COVID-19 recession and the
Great Recession. Controlling for worker ability, we find that licensing shields workers from a
recession-induced increase in the unemployment rate of 0.82 p.p. during COVID-19 and 1.11 p.p.
during the Great Recession.
Citations
Blair, Peter Q., and Bobby W. Chung. 2024. "Does Occupational Licensing Reduce Job Loss During Recessions?" NBER Working Paper No. 32486. National Bureau of Economic Research.