Vox China
Date of Publication:
January 2025
Our work explores the extent of trade rerouting through Vietnam during the 2018–2019 US-China trade war. We found that the level of rerouting varied significantly depending on the granularity of the measure used: 16.5% of Vietnamese exports to the US were rerouted at the product level, compared to just 1.7% at the firm level. Trade war tariffs led to increases in rerouting, but estimates were again significantly smaller for more granular measures, underscoring the importance of detailed microdata in formulating trade policy and measuring compliance.
Citations
Iyoha, Ebehi, Edmund Malesky, Jaya Wen, Sung-Ju Wu, and Bo Feng. 2025. Exports in Disguise: Trade Rerouting during the US-China Trade War?. Vox China, January 22, 2025.